***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.1 10.9 8.8 67.6 50.0 36.1 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.0 7.1 7.3 67.5 50.0 32.3 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 4.5 11.1 9.4 79.9 55.6 38.0 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.1 14.8 14.5 88.1 57.8 43.8 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.7 9.8 12.0 82.7 55.2 41.4 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.2 17.8 117.0 68.2 52.8 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 3.3 6.2 6.4 55.3 44.1 29.5 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.0 19.6 16.9 98.0 60.5 46.6 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.5 12.0 86.3 57.0 42.1 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.6 12.3 15.3 88.7 56.9 43.3 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.3 14.0 95.2 60.6 44.7 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.0 15.6 106.2 64.6 49.3 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.4 13.3 14.7 99.2 62.2 48.6 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.7 10.1 12.4 78.3 53.3 38.3 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.9 12.2 91.0 61.3 46.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.5 12.2 14.5 100.1 62.7 47.2 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 3.4 7.3 6.3 57.0 44.9 28.9 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.9 14.9 15.8 91.4 57.4 43.4 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.6 9.2 8.4 76.5 54.0 35.0 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.4 12.9 18.1 100.3 60.4 46.6 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.3 8.4 10.3 78.2 53.9 39.3 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 3.3 7.2 7.0 62.7 47.8 30.7 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.5 10.2 87.9 58.6 39.0 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.8 11.5 12.7 87.3 56.8 40.6 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.8 8.1 9.3 61.1 46.7 36.0 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.3 17.8 123.8 70.7 55.2 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.5 8.3 8.6 61.2 46.8 35.2 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.8 14.5 96.6 62.1 47.4 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.2 17.7 16.3 92.4 57.8 43.4 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 4.0 8.4 7.7 69.0 50.8 33.2 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------