***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.1 6.0 16.5 111.0 66.4 49.6 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.4 14.6 106.6 65.5 49.5 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.0 15.7 104.1 63.8 49.4 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.8 20.1 122.0 70.2 57.2 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.0 18.9 114.5 67.6 55.4 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.6 23.3 124.7 70.9 59.6 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.3 15.3 115.4 68.4 51.8 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 18.0 20.5 117.2 68.4 57.8 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.6 18.4 108.8 65.3 53.0 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.4 19.8 110.5 65.9 54.3 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.7 19.5 115.8 67.9 55.7 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.0 12.7 19.6 121.3 69.8 58.7 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.9 21.6 126.3 71.5 60.4 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.0 18.4 99.1 61.0 47.9 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.7 19.4 126.0 71.5 57.6 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.2 10.8 20.4 122.5 70.2 58.4 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.6 14.5 109.3 66.4 50.3 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.8 20.6 109.4 64.8 52.9 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.2 14.4 103.0 64.0 48.1 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.5 21.8 115.0 67.4 57.5 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.2 17.3 106.7 64.9 52.5 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.3 6.6 14.2 101.8 63.6 48.6 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.3 14.7 101.4 62.8 46.5 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.2 18.3 103.3 62.5 49.9 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.4 19.6 113.4 66.8 52.2 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.7 12.2 21.0 126.5 71.6 61.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.6 18.1 110.7 66.1 50.1 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 11.4 20.2 127.9 72.0 59.0 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.5 21.5 111.8 65.9 54.7 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.2 15.0 108.2 65.9 49.4 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------