***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.2 13.6 86.1 57.7 44.1 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.4 13.8 96.7 62.5 47.0 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.2 14.2 88.1 59.1 44.3 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.2 18.3 16.2 92.4 59.9 44.5 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.3 16.5 96.9 61.8 45.9 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.8 15.2 18.0 89.7 57.3 45.3 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.6 12.5 13.0 91.2 60.3 46.5 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 26.2 27.6 18.4 97.6 61.3 48.8 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.1 17.1 93.9 60.9 46.2 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.9 15.1 19.2 93.4 59.9 47.0 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.0 13.5 15.1 92.9 60.0 45.5 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.6 15.4 95.4 60.7 46.9 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.8 16.9 89.0 57.9 44.6 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 18.9 22.3 103.8 64.4 47.0 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 4.1 9.9 14.0 84.8 57.5 41.7 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.8 12.2 15.7 89.8 58.5 43.9 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.9 17.6 14.1 103.7 64.8 48.6 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.9 17.4 21.7 98.6 61.9 48.7 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.9 18.3 14.4 97.8 62.9 46.3 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 17.0 22.2 105.7 64.2 52.4 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.6 12.7 15.5 90.9 59.9 44.7 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.6 15.5 15.8 108.4 66.3 49.1 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.6 16.9 15.4 99.5 63.4 45.7 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.2 16.3 19.3 95.8 61.2 46.5 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.3 15.1 84.2 56.5 43.4 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.1 11.8 16.4 94.5 60.1 47.9 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.7 13.7 82.1 55.5 43.4 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.0 16.0 91.7 59.8 43.9 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 20.9 22.4 102.4 63.2 50.2 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.1 13.7 92.0 60.7 46.0 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------