***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.4 14.4 85.9 56.8 44.4 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.7 12.9 80.2 54.3 43.4 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.1 14.5 87.8 57.0 42.5 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 15.4 19.8 100.5 62.5 49.0 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.2 12.4 18.5 100.0 62.4 48.4 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.2 22.9 104.5 63.0 49.2 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.0 7.5 13.1 80.8 54.7 43.5 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.3 20.0 20.3 96.8 60.1 48.9 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.4 18.3 96.6 60.8 46.2 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.3 13.9 21.2 96.7 60.2 47.2 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.6 18.1 102.9 63.4 49.3 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.0 18.2 102.6 63.1 50.0 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.9 21.5 106.2 64.6 50.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.8 15.5 23.7 102.9 63.4 48.8 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.5 9.6 18.8 101.8 63.7 47.6 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.4 20.3 108.0 65.4 51.0 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.0 12.4 77.3 53.1 41.9 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.3 17.8 24.0 102.8 62.8 49.8 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.5 13.5 82.4 54.9 43.5 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 17.0 23.8 103.3 62.7 52.5 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.7 16.7 96.9 61.0 45.1 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 10.2 13.6 79.8 53.9 43.0 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.6 15.4 91.9 59.1 44.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.4 20.9 102.5 63.0 47.3 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.6 17.8 94.2 59.8 46.7 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.8 12.6 20.7 112.0 66.9 53.0 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.6 15.5 86.6 56.7 45.0 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.7 20.5 104.6 64.3 49.0 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 20.1 24.7 105.5 63.8 51.5 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.1 13.3 81.6 55.0 43.5 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------