***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 30.5 40.5 53.3 88.2 47.8 42.7 32.6 41.8 52.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.0 32.3 48.5 88.5 48.1 43.0 22.9 33.7 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 27.6 42.2 53.8 90.3 49.5 43.3 31.4 42.5 55.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 43.8 64.1 70.5 100.6 57.1 50.5 45.5 58.2 72.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 31.4 47.8 65.9 99.0 55.8 48.8 33.3 43.9 55.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 32.1 56.9 81.9 108.0 62.7 53.2 33.8 46.3 60.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 22.5 32.3 47.7 86.5 46.6 42.6 23.9 34.6 47.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 63.8 87.7 76.1 101.9 57.6 50.0 65.0 80.4 96.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 32.2 46.2 65.7 96.8 54.0 46.9 34.0 43.7 54.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 36.7 53.4 75.5 97.2 53.9 46.5 38.6 50.5 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 30.6 46.7 66.7 101.9 57.9 49.8 32.4 41.9 52.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 36.2 53.8 68.7 106.2 61.2 52.4 37.8 47.0 57.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 30.9 49.0 74.6 105.0 60.4 51.9 33.2 42.5 53.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 39.0 57.7 76.8 97.3 54.2 46.6 40.8 54.3 69.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 26.0 41.8 64.4 101.0 58.3 51.5 26.0 36.2 47.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 32.9 49.8 70.9 105.2 60.6 51.7 34.7 43.6 53.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 25.9 38.0 47.3 87.7 47.4 42.7 27.1 40.1 55.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 43.1 63.2 82.1 100.6 56.6 48.4 43.7 57.4 72.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 30.7 45.1 50.6 90.4 49.5 43.5 33.4 45.3 58.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 57.9 60.2 85.9 105.6 60.7 53.3 39.5 51.5 64.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 28.5 39.6 59.7 93.9 52.1 45.5 30.2 38.6 47.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.4 38.9 50.6 89.3 48.3 43.6 28.6 40.1 53.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 27.7 43.2 55.7 95.4 53.4 45.4 29.7 40.7 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 35.3 54.9 71.2 97.8 54.8 46.7 37.2 50.9 66.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 32.9 44.7 61.8 89.1 47.9 43.6 35.4 45.9 57.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 46.0 53.4 75.8 113.6 66.6 58.0 30.3 41.0 52.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 29.9 40.1 56.0 86.0 45.2 41.6 32.5 43.2 55.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 26.5 44.3 71.1 104.9 60.5 52.6 27.0 37.2 48.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 76.7 77.2 84.9 103.2 58.7 50.6 52.3 68.4 85.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 21.5 33.0 49.8 88.3 47.8 42.9 23.1 34.8 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------