***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.0 9.3 -0.6 37.0 41.4 8.7 9.8 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.2 9.3 -0.6 37.1 42.0 7.9 9.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.6 9.9 9.0 -0.7 35.0 40.1 9.8 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 3.9 6.5 -1.0 26.7 34.1 4.4 5.7 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.1 6.3 6.7 -0.8 31.8 38.8 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.3 5.1 -0.6 34.9 40.6 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.3 9.3 -0.6 38.3 42.8 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.8 0.6 5.3 -0.5 38.4 43.2 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.3 7.2 -0.7 34.7 41.1 7.2 8.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.1 7.6 5.8 -0.5 37.3 42.8 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.6 7.1 6.4 -0.5 36.3 42.3 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.5 6.0 -0.5 38.1 43.3 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.1 6.6 5.6 -0.5 37.9 43.4 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.0 7.4 -0.7 34.6 41.2 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 7.8 7.6 6.8 -1.2 23.9 30.8 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.8 6.1 -0.6 35.7 41.7 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.8 9.2 -0.6 38.0 42.9 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.3 5.3 -0.5 37.7 43.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.2 9.2 -0.7 36.1 41.4 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.5 2.5 3.6 -0.5 38.8 43.4 2.2 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.0 7.3 8.3 -0.7 34.4 40.1 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.5 7.8 9.1 -0.7 35.8 41.3 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.5 7.8 8.8 -0.7 35.0 40.8 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.1 7.5 7.1 -0.6 35.4 41.4 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.5 7.6 7.5 -0.9 31.6 37.7 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.5 5.8 -0.5 36.8 42.0 6.3 7.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.6 8.1 8.5 -0.7 34.9 40.1 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.9 5.7 6.7 -1.0 26.6 33.6 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.0 4.7 -0.5 38.5 43.9 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.3 9.4 -0.6 36.8 41.6 8.0 9.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------