***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.1 11.5 -0.3 45.1 46.3 10.5 11.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.6 -0.1 48.2 48.4 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.1 13.0 11.2 -0.3 45.2 46.8 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.9 7.9 9.2 -0.4 43.1 45.4 7.2 8.3 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.1 9.8 9.1 -0.4 43.0 45.4 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.6 7.4 -0.3 44.8 46.5 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.6 -0.1 48.3 48.4 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.4 7.2 -0.4 41.4 44.2 3.0 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.6 9.4 -0.4 43.0 45.4 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.4 7.8 -0.4 42.0 44.7 10.0 10.7 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.3 8.6 -0.4 43.0 45.5 9.9 10.6 11.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 7.7 8.3 8.1 -0.4 41.6 44.3 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.8 7.7 -0.4 42.9 45.2 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.1 9.4 -0.3 43.8 45.8 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.1 9.8 -0.3 43.7 45.9 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.3 10.9 8.3 -0.3 43.2 45.5 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.6 11.4 -0.1 49.0 48.8 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.7 7.1 -0.4 41.4 44.2 8.4 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.5 11.4 -0.1 47.9 48.4 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.7 5.4 -0.5 40.0 42.9 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.5 10.5 -0.4 42.7 45.0 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.8 11.2 -0.1 47.9 48.2 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.0 11.0 -0.1 47.2 48.1 10.4 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.5 9.2 -0.3 43.3 45.7 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.8 9.9 -0.3 43.5 45.2 10.3 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.5 7.9 -0.4 42.1 44.5 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.4 10.7 -0.3 44.7 46.0 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.4 9.4 -0.3 43.5 45.7 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.6 6.5 -0.5 41.2 43.8 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.6 -0.1 47.4 47.9 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------