***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.0 10.4 0.2 57.3 55.4 9.1 9.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.8 10.3 0.2 56.7 54.6 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.5 10.1 0.2 55.0 53.4 10.6 11.3 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.0 7.8 -0.1 45.9 46.6 5.5 6.2 6.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.0 7.9 0.0 51.5 50.8 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.8 6.0 0.0 49.8 49.3 6.4 6.8 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.8 10.4 0.3 58.3 55.7 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.1 2.0 6.1 0.1 53.3 51.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.9 8.3 0.1 54.3 52.7 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.9 6.8 0.1 55.0 53.2 8.3 8.7 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.4 7.4 0.1 51.9 51.1 7.9 8.4 8.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.3 6.8 6.9 0.1 52.5 51.3 6.3 6.8 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.0 6.5 0.1 52.8 51.7 7.6 8.0 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.4 8.4 0.1 52.9 51.7 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.4 8.4 -0.2 44.8 45.6 9.0 9.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 7.1 0.0 50.8 50.3 8.7 9.2 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.0 10.2 0.2 57.2 55.0 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.0 6.1 0.1 54.5 52.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.7 10.2 0.2 55.9 54.0 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.7 4.4 0.1 53.8 51.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.9 9.4 0.1 53.2 52.1 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.2 10.0 0.2 54.9 53.2 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.3 9.8 0.2 54.8 53.3 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.9 8.1 0.1 53.4 52.1 8.3 8.8 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.3 8.8 0.1 52.5 52.1 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 6.5 0.0 50.2 49.5 7.4 7.8 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.0 9.6 0.2 56.3 54.8 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 8.0 -0.1 45.2 45.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.3 5.5 0.1 53.9 52.2 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.9 10.4 0.2 56.5 54.5 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------