***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 19.8 19.8 19.0 0.2 53.5 53.7 18.0 19.5 20.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 19.9 20.0 19.1 0.3 54.5 54.7 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 20.0 19.8 19.0 0.2 52.7 52.9 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.0 16.2 -0.1 47.6 47.9 10.6 12.2 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 20.3 20.0 17.4 0.1 52.0 51.7 18.3 19.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 18.6 18.9 15.3 0.4 56.8 55.7 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 19.5 19.6 19.1 0.3 55.5 55.7 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 7.8 8.0 15.7 0.4 55.9 55.2 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 19.7 19.6 18.3 0.2 53.0 52.6 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 19.8 19.8 16.7 0.3 54.0 53.5 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 20.0 19.9 17.2 0.2 53.4 52.9 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 19.0 19.2 16.5 0.3 55.4 54.8 17.1 18.7 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 19.9 20.3 16.7 0.5 57.7 56.8 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 20.2 19.9 18.1 0.1 52.2 52.2 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 19.7 18.8 17.4 -0.3 44.6 45.3 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 20.4 20.5 16.9 0.3 54.7 54.1 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 19.2 19.2 18.9 0.3 54.3 54.6 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 19.4 19.4 16.1 0.3 54.5 54.1 17.4 19.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 19.7 19.7 19.1 0.3 54.4 54.6 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 14.4 14.7 14.0 0.5 57.4 56.8 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 20.0 19.7 18.9 0.1 51.5 51.5 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 20.0 20.0 18.9 0.2 53.8 54.1 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 20.1 20.1 19.0 0.2 53.7 53.8 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 19.8 19.5 17.8 0.2 52.4 52.4 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 19.8 19.5 17.7 0.1 50.9 51.1 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 19.1 19.5 15.6 0.4 57.4 56.6 17.4 18.9 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 19.6 19.5 18.5 0.2 53.2 53.4 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 19.9 19.2 16.8 -0.2 47.2 47.5 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 0.5 56.9 56.3 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 19.6 19.7 19.2 0.3 54.8 55.0 17.7 19.3 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------