***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.1 19.4 -0.9 36.7 40.6 20.8 22.1 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.1 20.7 19.4 -0.8 37.5 41.3 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.8 19.6 -0.9 37.5 41.2 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.1 17.6 -1.0 35.3 39.6 12.9 14.4 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.3 20.8 18.0 -0.8 38.2 41.7 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 20.5 19.2 16.1 -0.6 41.0 44.2 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 19.8 20.4 19.4 -0.9 37.2 41.0 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.3 16.6 -0.6 41.5 44.2 7.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.4 18.5 -0.8 39.0 42.2 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.4 17.4 -0.7 40.6 43.4 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 21.9 20.6 17.6 -0.6 40.5 43.6 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.0 19.7 17.3 -0.6 41.3 44.3 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.8 20.4 16.8 -0.6 40.7 43.9 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 19.8 20.5 18.3 -0.9 38.3 41.8 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 20.0 20.2 17.6 -1.1 32.7 37.5 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.3 20.9 17.3 -0.7 40.1 43.5 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.3 20.0 19.3 -0.8 38.3 41.9 19.5 20.9 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.3 19.8 16.7 -0.7 40.0 42.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.4 19.5 -0.8 37.8 41.5 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.6 14.4 -0.7 39.8 42.6 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 22.2 20.6 19.1 -0.9 37.6 41.2 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.5 19.3 -0.8 37.9 41.7 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.3 20.6 19.4 -0.8 38.1 41.7 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.5 20.3 18.2 -0.8 39.1 42.3 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.9 20.3 17.8 -1.0 34.5 39.0 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 20.9 19.5 16.5 -0.6 40.8 43.9 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 19.9 20.3 18.6 -1.0 35.2 39.5 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.2 20.4 17.7 -0.9 36.0 40.3 20.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.6 15.7 -0.8 39.8 42.6 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.1 20.5 19.5 -0.9 37.1 41.0 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------