***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.3 20.9 0.0 50.4 48.6 20.6 22.2 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.3 20.9 0.1 51.0 48.2 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 20.5 22.3 20.9 -0.1 49.3 47.5 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.7 14.8 19.1 -0.2 47.0 46.6 13.7 15.1 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.6 22.1 19.2 -0.2 46.7 46.1 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 19.0 20.8 17.4 0.0 49.6 48.5 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.1 20.9 0.1 51.7 49.0 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.8 17.6 -0.2 47.3 45.8 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.0 21.5 19.5 -0.2 46.5 45.8 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.5 18.3 -0.2 47.0 45.7 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.8 18.7 -0.2 47.7 46.6 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.2 20.8 18.4 -0.2 47.3 46.2 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.1 21.8 18.0 -0.2 47.8 46.9 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 20.2 21.9 19.2 -0.2 47.6 45.5 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.1 19.4 -0.1 47.8 47.5 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.7 22.4 18.5 -0.1 48.4 47.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.6 20.7 0.1 51.3 48.3 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.9 17.7 -0.2 47.3 45.4 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.8 20.8 0.0 50.3 47.6 20.2 21.8 23.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 14.5 16.1 15.5 -0.2 46.8 44.8 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.8 20.3 -0.2 47.0 46.3 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.0 20.5 0.0 49.5 46.8 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.0 20.6 0.0 49.4 46.9 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.9 21.5 19.2 -0.1 48.0 46.0 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.9 19.4 -0.2 47.7 46.9 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.1 17.7 -0.2 47.2 46.5 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.9 20.2 0.0 49.7 48.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.0 19.3 -0.2 47.7 47.2 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.3 16.0 16.6 -0.2 47.3 45.2 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.1 21.0 0.1 50.9 48.4 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------