***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.0 21.4 -0.6 42.2 44.4 22.2 23.7 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.5 21.5 -0.4 44.5 46.2 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.4 21.5 -0.6 42.7 44.6 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.5 19.5 -0.9 38.7 41.4 15.0 16.4 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.2 23.2 19.7 -0.8 39.9 42.4 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.7 21.6 17.7 -0.9 39.0 41.1 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 21.8 22.9 21.5 -0.5 44.0 45.9 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.0 18.1 -0.9 39.3 41.9 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 21.8 22.6 20.1 -0.8 40.5 42.9 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.5 18.8 -0.8 40.0 42.5 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.7 19.2 -0.8 40.1 42.4 22.1 23.5 24.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.8 18.9 -0.9 39.2 41.7 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.0 22.8 18.4 -0.9 38.8 41.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.2 19.9 -0.6 42.4 44.4 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.2 22.9 19.8 -1.0 37.5 40.4 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.4 23.4 18.9 -0.8 39.5 41.8 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 21.4 22.7 21.3 -0.4 45.2 46.7 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.2 18.2 -0.8 40.3 42.8 21.6 22.9 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.0 21.6 -0.4 44.6 46.1 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.3 17.0 16.0 -0.9 38.9 41.8 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.3 22.9 20.8 -0.8 40.8 43.2 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.3 21.2 -0.4 44.5 46.0 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.4 21.3 -0.5 44.2 45.7 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.9 22.6 19.8 -0.7 41.7 43.9 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.8 19.8 -0.8 39.8 42.6 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.1 18.2 -0.9 38.6 41.2 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.8 20.6 -0.7 41.1 43.7 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.1 22.9 19.7 -0.9 38.3 40.8 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.3 17.1 17.2 -0.9 40.0 42.7 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.2 21.6 -0.5 43.8 45.6 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------