***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.5 20.2 -0.3 43.3 44.5 20.9 21.9 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.6 20.2 -0.2 45.2 45.9 20.8 21.9 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.5 20.2 -0.3 43.1 44.4 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.9 18.1 -0.6 38.2 40.2 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 21.0 21.5 18.5 -0.4 40.8 42.6 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 20.8 20.1 16.6 -0.3 43.9 45.1 19.5 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.2 20.2 -0.2 45.4 46.1 20.5 21.5 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.2 17.0 -0.3 43.1 44.2 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.0 19.1 -0.4 41.6 43.3 20.5 21.5 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.0 17.8 -0.4 42.4 43.8 20.5 21.4 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.5 21.1 18.2 -0.3 42.5 43.9 20.7 21.5 22.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.8 -0.3 42.8 44.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.3 17.5 -0.3 43.3 44.5 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.4 18.9 -0.4 42.4 43.9 20.8 21.8 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.0 18.6 -0.6 36.3 38.4 20.8 21.7 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 21.1 21.8 17.9 -0.3 42.7 44.1 21.3 22.1 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.5 20.8 20.0 -0.2 45.9 46.3 20.1 21.1 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.9 20.6 17.2 -0.4 42.5 44.0 20.1 20.9 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.2 20.3 -0.2 45.0 45.8 20.5 21.5 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.6 15.0 -0.4 42.6 43.8 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.2 19.8 -0.4 41.0 42.8 20.8 21.7 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.4 20.0 -0.3 44.5 45.2 20.7 21.8 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.5 20.1 -0.3 44.3 45.4 20.8 21.8 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.0 18.8 -0.4 42.5 44.0 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.1 18.7 -0.5 39.6 41.6 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.5 17.0 -0.3 42.9 44.1 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.1 19.5 -0.4 41.9 43.3 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.2 18.4 -0.5 38.4 40.3 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.6 16.2 -0.3 43.2 44.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.3 20.3 -0.2 44.8 45.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------