***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 20.4 29.8 28.6 204.8 87.3 80.3 7.2 11.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 15.9 25.5 26.8 204.2 88.0 81.2 3.8 7.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 20.3 32.4 28.9 206.8 88.1 81.0 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 20.5 31.0 35.8 212.6 89.0 81.9 7.5 11.7 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.4 24.6 32.3 190.2 85.8 77.1 4.7 8.3 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 15.4 21.1 31.4 166.8 82.3 75.2 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 16.0 24.0 26.1 196.3 87.3 79.7 4.6 8.0 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 26.7 38.8 33.5 185.3 86.5 77.9 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 14.7 22.9 31.3 189.0 85.9 78.3 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 19.1 29.5 34.5 185.9 86.1 77.9 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 15.1 23.7 31.8 196.2 86.8 78.1 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 15.8 24.3 29.6 182.4 85.4 76.7 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 15.9 22.3 29.4 161.6 81.4 73.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 19.8 28.0 30.1 181.4 84.8 77.5 5.6 9.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 16.9 28.5 35.1 224.4 89.8 83.6 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 16.5 25.1 31.3 185.4 85.4 77.0 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.1 22.9 25.2 193.5 86.3 78.4 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 21.5 30.0 33.5 170.6 83.7 76.7 6.6 11.5 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 17.8 29.1 27.3 205.0 87.8 81.3 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 17.9 23.6 31.3 157.7 81.9 74.9 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 13.7 20.9 30.3 198.8 87.0 79.1 4.4 7.4 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 14.2 21.4 26.0 203.4 87.7 80.8 4.3 7.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 14.1 20.8 27.6 195.6 86.3 79.9 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 20.5 29.6 31.5 181.9 85.2 78.2 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 18.0 27.1 32.6 193.0 85.8 79.8 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.3 17.6 26.7 152.8 79.6 72.4 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 19.6 30.2 31.3 200.5 87.0 80.8 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 15.7 27.3 34.6 217.3 89.4 82.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 25.2 34.1 32.2 166.0 83.0 76.5 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 17.4 26.3 27.5 207.0 88.2 82.0 5.2 8.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------