***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.2 12.3 94.7 60.4 50.4 1.9 3.7 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.7 15.3 110.8 66.9 55.3 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.8 11.8 91.6 58.5 48.1 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.5 12.8 76.8 53.1 44.6 4.3 7.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.1 13.0 81.6 54.8 46.4 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 19.9 89.6 55.3 48.8 3.6 6.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.1 15.7 109.8 66.8 54.7 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.9 12.8 14.2 81.8 53.8 45.3 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.2 13.5 89.7 58.6 50.1 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.2 15.0 85.6 55.3 47.4 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.6 12.6 83.1 56.6 47.2 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.0 11.5 77.1 53.0 44.3 3.9 7.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.1 15.8 81.6 52.2 46.6 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.7 15.2 93.8 58.9 49.7 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.1 14.3 90.5 59.2 50.4 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.0 15.1 84.8 55.7 48.1 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.4 15.1 108.7 66.4 52.7 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.5 18.4 94.5 58.7 51.5 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.9 14.3 108.4 66.0 54.7 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.3 21.8 100.5 60.6 53.7 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.4 87.8 57.7 47.4 2.4 4.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.6 8.2 14.2 108.5 66.2 52.9 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.4 13.3 102.1 63.5 52.6 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.7 15.2 92.5 58.0 49.7 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.8 15.1 90.4 58.2 50.3 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.5 14.0 86.9 56.6 49.8 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.3 15.5 98.1 61.5 52.6 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.6 13.6 81.7 55.4 46.2 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 19.2 96.2 58.8 51.7 4.7 9.1 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.3 14.4 105.8 65.0 54.5 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------