***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.9 13.7 14.9 111.7 67.5 53.1 4.8 8.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.7 17.4 104.9 65.0 50.7 5.1 8.9 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.0 14.7 98.8 62.4 51.2 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 22.1 19.4 109.8 66.1 50.6 6.8 13.0 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.5 15.4 18.9 109.4 65.9 51.1 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.4 17.7 25.5 102.8 62.3 52.1 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.5 17.3 104.9 65.2 50.8 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 26.3 28.3 20.8 101.9 61.8 51.1 11.9 20.5 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.5 18.4 105.2 64.5 50.7 5.1 9.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.8 15.5 20.8 98.8 61.0 50.2 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.2 15.2 17.7 110.4 66.2 52.1 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.7 17.3 109.8 65.6 52.2 7.3 12.0 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.4 20.7 106.1 64.2 52.4 5.4 9.1 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.6 18.7 89.1 57.5 48.2 6.3 12.0 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 15.4 18.8 109.7 66.5 50.5 5.3 9.4 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.5 14.5 19.6 112.9 66.9 52.8 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.0 17.5 17.2 105.1 65.1 48.9 5.6 10.8 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 15.3 22.3 90.5 56.6 49.1 6.8 12.4 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 8.0 20.5 16.7 102.8 64.2 50.4 7.4 13.5 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.5 16.1 26.3 98.0 59.1 51.6 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.5 16.1 15.5 106.6 65.2 51.2 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.7 16.3 101.2 63.3 47.0 6.1 9.9 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.4 15.7 16.1 98.8 62.4 49.5 5.8 10.8 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.4 14.7 18.3 89.4 57.2 48.6 5.5 11.3 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.0 18.8 18.6 108.8 65.9 51.7 6.5 11.8 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.9 18.0 100.5 61.9 50.2 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.6 16.9 17.7 109.3 66.3 52.3 6.2 10.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.2 16.2 19.6 112.4 67.1 50.9 5.1 9.5 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.2 23.5 95.1 58.7 51.3 7.8 14.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 15.1 16.6 104.6 65.1 51.8 4.4 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------