***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.2 18.0 14.0 119.7 70.1 56.9 5.4 9.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.7 13.1 107.4 65.4 49.0 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.6 17.0 13.4 114.6 68.1 54.1 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 19.1 17.7 123.2 71.0 57.7 5.0 9.7 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.2 16.4 16.7 121.4 70.4 55.9 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.7 15.8 23.9 132.6 73.4 59.0 4.9 8.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.6 12.9 13.8 111.5 66.8 50.3 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.2 28.9 19.9 126.2 71.5 56.9 11.5 17.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.3 16.7 16.4 121.9 70.6 56.5 4.2 8.3 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 20.8 20.1 125.8 71.5 57.5 5.5 10.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.9 15.2 16.2 130.2 72.7 56.0 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.3 14.2 15.7 124.5 71.2 55.2 5.0 8.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.8 18.3 120.9 70.1 55.7 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.1 17.4 17.5 109.5 66.3 51.7 5.4 10.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.3 9.5 18.5 142.7 75.9 60.2 2.7 4.7 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 15.7 17.7 129.6 72.6 56.0 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.0 12.9 103.2 63.8 46.1 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 23.2 23.1 128.0 72.1 58.0 7.6 12.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.8 12.6 105.0 64.6 48.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.0 21.3 25.0 124.1 70.8 57.6 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.1 12.6 14.5 121.6 70.7 57.6 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.5 12.3 11.8 91.6 58.9 44.1 4.8 9.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.9 13.0 105.6 65.2 49.2 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.5 19.2 18.5 119.9 69.6 55.3 6.4 11.2 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 15.5 18.1 120.4 70.0 57.9 4.2 8.0 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.5 14.1 15.6 113.8 67.9 55.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.3 16.8 116.9 68.9 56.0 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.9 18.0 131.1 73.1 57.9 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 24.6 23.3 125.8 71.4 57.0 8.7 14.2 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.1 13.2 111.6 66.9 51.5 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------