***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 57.6 64.9 69.7 134.3 77.7 69.0 35.0 44.4 54.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 53.1 58.1 72.6 130.3 75.8 67.5 24.8 35.3 48.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 61.4 68.0 68.8 128.8 75.5 67.4 34.1 45.4 58.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 75.6 82.3 85.6 130.7 76.0 67.9 46.0 58.3 71.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 61.5 63.6 81.0 126.4 73.8 65.3 35.5 45.6 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 62.6 65.4 100.8 120.1 71.8 64.8 38.6 49.0 60.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 54.7 59.5 72.8 129.2 75.4 67.1 25.0 36.3 49.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 104.4 108.8 88.4 123.8 73.6 66.5 69.9 84.5 100.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 61.0 64.1 79.7 127.3 74.6 65.5 35.2 45.3 56.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 69.4 73.1 90.4 123.9 73.3 65.7 42.0 53.4 65.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 56.9 60.8 78.4 130.7 75.6 67.4 34.4 43.4 53.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 59.5 62.0 74.1 124.4 73.2 65.5 39.8 48.2 57.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 54.7 55.0 84.1 116.7 69.0 62.0 35.0 43.7 52.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 61.9 74.1 81.5 116.8 69.0 60.5 42.5 55.9 70.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 51.9 60.5 86.7 140.9 79.7 71.1 28.0 37.4 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 56.3 59.9 83.7 127.5 74.5 66.3 36.8 45.2 54.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 59.3 62.6 70.4 126.2 73.2 64.5 25.9 38.7 53.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 64.4 79.0 97.4 119.1 70.8 64.3 46.4 59.5 73.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 63.0 69.5 70.9 129.5 75.4 66.9 35.2 46.8 59.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 67.9 71.0 104.4 117.9 71.0 64.7 40.4 52.4 65.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 53.0 56.9 71.6 131.4 76.2 67.7 31.1 39.7 49.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 56.3 59.2 68.4 124.5 72.3 63.9 28.3 39.7 52.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 45.6 61.9 70.1 125.6 73.6 64.6 30.3 41.5 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 59.4 74.3 83.6 120.1 71.2 63.3 40.8 54.1 68.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 62.6 68.6 84.4 128.4 75.4 66.7 36.5 47.6 59.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 54.3 53.5 74.2 114.0 67.1 62.2 33.6 42.8 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 61.9 70.1 81.3 131.4 77.0 67.8 34.7 45.9 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 53.0 59.5 85.8 134.6 77.5 68.9 30.9 39.9 50.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 88.8 93.1 98.2 118.9 71.1 64.9 54.6 69.7 86.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 56.6 64.1 71.8 131.4 76.6 68.3 24.3 36.3 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------