***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 9.8 9.8 1.1 69.5 67.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 9.2 9.0 9.5 1.0 67.7 66.3 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.9 9.5 1.0 69.2 67.3 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 5.8 5.7 7.2 1.0 70.4 68.1 2.8 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.5 7.5 1.0 72.1 69.7 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.5 5.2 1.0 72.9 70.0 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 9.1 9.0 9.4 0.9 67.8 66.4 6.6 7.8 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.5 5.6 1.1 72.7 69.8 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.0 7.8 0.9 70.3 67.9 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 8.1 8.1 6.4 1.0 71.7 69.1 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 7.6 7.6 6.9 1.0 71.7 69.4 5.5 6.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 6.1 6.1 6.1 0.9 71.2 68.6 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 7.3 7.3 5.7 0.9 71.6 69.5 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.7 8.2 1.0 69.4 67.7 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.6 8.1 0.9 68.8 67.2 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 8.8 9.0 6.5 1.0 73.5 71.0 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.2 9.0 9.3 0.9 66.9 65.5 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.2 5.7 1.0 71.5 69.1 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 9.0 8.9 9.5 1.0 68.0 66.5 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.1 3.6 1.1 72.8 70.1 1.2 2.0 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.3 9.2 1.1 71.4 69.0 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 8.3 8.2 9.3 0.9 67.6 66.1 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.5 9.3 1.0 68.5 66.8 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 7.9 8.0 7.8 1.0 70.3 68.3 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 8.7 8.8 8.8 1.2 71.6 69.4 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.3 5.4 1.0 72.7 69.4 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 9.6 9.7 9.2 1.1 70.2 68.4 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 6.9 6.9 7.5 1.0 70.2 68.2 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 6.0 6.2 5.1 1.1 73.5 71.0 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 9.4 9.3 9.6 1.0 67.9 66.5 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------