***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 11.2 11.5 -0.5 39.6 42.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.1 11.5 -0.5 41.3 43.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 11.9 12.9 11.4 -0.4 42.8 44.0 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.7 9.4 -0.5 39.5 42.2 7.2 8.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 8.9 9.6 9.3 -0.5 40.6 42.8 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.5 7.5 -0.4 42.0 43.7 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.4 -0.5 39.7 42.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.5 7.5 -0.3 43.3 45.0 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.7 -0.4 41.2 43.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.8 10.5 8.2 -0.3 42.9 44.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.3 8.8 -0.4 42.3 44.1 9.9 10.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 7.7 8.4 8.3 -0.3 42.3 44.0 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 9.1 9.8 7.8 -0.4 41.2 42.7 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.3 9.8 -0.2 45.9 46.0 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.0 10.0 -0.4 40.5 42.9 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.9 8.5 -0.4 42.1 43.7 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.2 11.3 -0.5 40.5 42.4 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.1 8.9 7.6 -0.2 45.0 45.8 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.5 11.3 11.4 -0.4 43.1 44.2 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.9 5.8 -0.2 45.0 46.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 9.7 10.5 10.7 -0.5 40.6 42.7 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.6 11.2 -0.4 41.7 43.0 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.2 -0.2 45.5 45.6 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.6 9.5 -0.2 45.2 45.8 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.6 10.0 -0.6 38.0 40.9 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.7 9.2 7.8 -0.5 38.0 40.5 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 10.0 11.0 10.8 -0.6 38.3 41.2 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.3 9.6 -0.4 41.3 43.4 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 8.0 6.9 -0.2 46.5 47.0 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.4 11.2 11.5 -0.5 41.2 43.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------