***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 10.2 10.9 0.4 62.5 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.3 10.7 0.4 62.4 58.7 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.1 10.7 0.4 64.9 60.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.7 8.5 0.3 59.1 56.3 5.7 6.4 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.5 8.6 0.3 61.8 57.8 7.6 8.2 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.4 6.6 0.4 63.5 58.4 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.2 10.7 0.4 61.7 58.1 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.6 6.8 0.5 66.1 60.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.3 9.0 0.3 62.5 58.0 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.4 7.6 0.4 65.4 60.4 8.5 8.9 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.9 8.1 0.4 63.6 59.1 8.1 8.6 9.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.3 7.5 0.4 63.4 58.9 6.5 6.9 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.4 6.9 0.3 61.1 56.8 7.7 8.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.0 9.1 0.4 65.0 60.6 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.0 9.2 0.2 58.8 56.1 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.8 7.7 0.4 63.2 58.8 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.4 10.5 0.3 60.5 57.7 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.5 6.9 0.5 66.5 61.3 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.2 10.7 0.4 63.7 59.6 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.2 5.1 0.5 65.6 60.6 3.3 3.7 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.4 10.1 0.4 63.3 58.5 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.6 10.4 0.3 61.3 58.4 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.0 9.9 10.4 0.5 65.2 60.6 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.4 8.8 0.5 66.1 61.1 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.7 9.5 0.3 60.5 57.0 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.2 6.9 0.2 58.3 55.5 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.4 10.2 0.3 61.2 57.4 9.2 10.0 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.0 8.7 0.3 60.3 57.2 7.4 7.8 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.0 6.3 0.5 67.9 62.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.4 10.8 0.4 62.9 58.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------