***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 20.3 20.0 1.2 66.8 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 20.4 21.1 19.8 1.0 63.9 62.4 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 21.6 21.3 20.1 1.2 66.2 64.2 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.4 17.5 1.5 70.3 67.5 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 21.9 21.8 18.5 1.3 68.4 66.1 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 20.4 20.7 16.1 1.5 73.2 70.0 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 20.0 20.5 19.6 0.9 62.6 61.3 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.2 9.0 16.3 1.0 64.7 62.7 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 21.3 21.3 19.4 1.3 68.1 65.8 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 21.2 21.0 17.6 1.2 65.9 63.9 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 21.5 21.4 18.1 1.2 67.3 65.1 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 20.6 20.4 17.1 1.1 65.4 63.3 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 21.6 21.4 17.2 1.1 66.7 64.8 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.0 19.0 0.9 62.0 60.8 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 21.2 21.3 18.9 1.4 70.6 67.7 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 22.1 22.0 17.8 1.3 68.6 66.3 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 19.6 20.1 19.4 0.8 61.1 60.0 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 19.6 20.4 16.9 1.0 63.3 61.8 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 21.2 20.9 20.0 1.1 64.9 63.2 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 14.6 15.3 14.5 0.9 62.4 60.9 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 21.6 21.4 20.1 1.3 67.6 65.4 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 20.4 21.0 19.5 0.8 61.4 60.3 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 21.7 21.3 20.0 1.1 65.3 63.5 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 21.1 20.7 18.8 1.0 63.5 62.0 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 21.4 21.2 18.8 1.3 67.4 65.3 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 19.5 20.3 16.0 0.9 64.6 62.6 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 21.1 20.9 19.4 1.1 65.6 63.9 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 21.5 21.6 18.1 1.5 71.1 68.2 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.3 16.1 1.0 62.4 61.1 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 21.2 20.9 20.0 1.1 64.9 63.2 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------