***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 23.2 20.6 0.5 58.4 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.2 22.6 20.3 0.4 56.9 57.5 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 23.7 22.8 20.7 0.6 58.8 58.8 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.3 18.9 0.5 57.8 57.4 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.7 19.1 0.6 58.6 58.0 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 21.8 21.4 17.3 1.0 64.0 61.0 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.0 22.1 20.3 0.4 56.7 57.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.6 10.4 17.6 0.7 59.8 58.1 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 23.1 22.2 19.6 0.6 58.6 58.1 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 22.9 22.1 18.4 0.6 59.1 58.0 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.2 22.4 18.7 0.7 60.3 58.8 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.0 21.6 18.4 0.7 60.9 58.8 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 19.8 22.6 18.0 0.9 62.8 60.0 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.1 22.4 19.3 0.4 56.4 57.1 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.3 19.1 0.5 57.8 57.5 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.6 23.0 18.5 0.8 61.8 59.5 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.7 20.0 0.3 55.2 56.2 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 19.2 21.7 17.8 0.6 58.3 57.6 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.2 22.2 20.5 0.5 57.5 58.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.1 16.6 15.4 0.5 57.9 56.5 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 23.4 22.5 20.2 0.6 58.4 58.2 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.0 22.2 20.1 0.2 54.1 55.6 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 23.5 22.6 20.5 0.5 58.1 58.4 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 23.0 22.1 19.3 0.6 58.1 58.0 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 23.2 22.4 19.1 0.5 57.8 57.8 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 22.3 21.7 17.6 0.8 62.4 59.5 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 23.2 22.3 19.8 0.5 58.3 58.3 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.4 19.1 0.6 58.7 57.9 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.1 16.6 16.8 0.6 58.1 57.2 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 23.5 22.4 20.5 0.5 57.6 58.1 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------