***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 22.7 20.8 0.1 52.1 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.9 20.7 0.4 55.0 53.6 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.7 20.8 0.2 52.4 51.8 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.0 18.8 -0.3 45.8 46.3 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 20.8 22.2 19.0 -0.3 45.8 46.9 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.2 20.4 16.8 -0.5 43.0 44.2 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.4 20.7 0.3 54.6 53.2 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.6 17.3 -0.5 43.5 45.2 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.7 19.4 -0.2 46.8 47.9 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.4 18.1 -0.4 44.9 46.5 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.5 18.5 -0.4 44.6 46.1 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.6 18.1 -0.5 43.4 44.9 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.5 17.6 -0.5 43.3 44.6 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.3 19.3 0.0 50.5 50.6 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.2 19.1 -0.3 46.2 46.1 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 23.4 22.2 18.1 -0.5 44.0 45.2 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.1 20.5 0.4 55.6 54.0 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.5 21.0 17.4 -0.4 45.3 46.8 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.4 20.8 0.4 55.1 53.7 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 14.7 16.0 15.1 -0.5 44.2 45.5 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.1 20.2 -0.1 48.8 49.3 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.8 20.5 0.4 55.8 54.3 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.7 20.7 0.3 54.3 53.3 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.7 19.2 -0.1 48.7 49.3 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.2 19.2 -0.1 49.1 48.9 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.1 20.8 17.3 -0.6 42.1 43.6 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.2 20.0 0.1 51.5 50.7 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 23.1 22.1 19.0 -0.4 44.9 45.5 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.9 16.4 -0.4 45.2 46.5 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.5 20.9 0.3 54.4 53.1 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------