***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 23.4 21.2 -0.5 43.0 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.4 21.1 -0.4 44.3 46.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.4 21.3 -0.4 44.1 46.4 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.5 19.4 -0.8 38.6 42.3 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.2 19.6 -0.7 39.4 43.3 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 20.5 21.2 17.2 -1.0 35.1 39.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.8 22.9 20.9 -0.5 42.5 45.3 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.0 17.9 -0.8 38.4 42.3 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.7 20.0 -0.7 40.2 44.0 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.4 18.7 -0.8 39.2 43.1 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.7 19.0 -0.8 38.7 42.7 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.1 21.8 18.7 -0.8 38.2 42.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.2 22.8 18.1 -0.9 36.6 40.7 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.2 19.9 -0.5 43.2 45.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.9 19.7 -0.8 37.3 41.0 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.2 18.7 -0.8 37.3 41.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.6 20.8 -0.5 43.3 45.6 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.1 -0.7 39.9 43.4 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.0 21.3 -0.3 45.5 47.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.1 17.1 15.8 -0.8 39.0 42.7 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.9 23.0 20.8 -0.6 41.6 45.0 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.5 23.3 20.9 -0.4 44.8 46.5 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.5 21.2 -0.3 45.9 47.4 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.6 19.8 -0.6 42.1 45.0 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.9 19.7 -0.6 40.8 44.4 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.0 17.9 -0.9 36.9 40.4 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.9 20.4 -0.6 41.7 45.2 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.8 19.5 -0.8 37.3 41.1 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.1 17.1 17.1 -0.8 39.9 43.4 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.2 21.2 -0.4 44.2 46.4 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------