***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 21.9 20.6 0.4 58.0 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.5 20.5 0.3 57.7 55.9 21.0 22.1 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.6 20.7 0.4 58.3 56.1 21.1 22.1 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.0 18.7 0.2 55.3 53.1 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.4 19.0 0.2 54.9 53.2 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 20.9 20.8 16.9 0.2 55.8 53.2 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.0 20.4 0.3 56.2 54.8 20.7 21.7 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.9 17.3 0.1 52.0 51.2 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.9 19.6 0.2 55.3 53.6 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.7 18.2 0.2 53.4 52.3 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.9 18.6 0.2 54.2 52.7 20.8 21.7 22.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.2 21.0 18.1 0.1 52.5 51.4 20.1 20.9 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.9 17.7 0.1 53.2 51.6 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.2 19.4 0.2 54.7 53.9 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.2 19.2 0.2 55.3 52.8 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.5 18.3 0.2 54.5 52.5 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.6 20.2 0.3 55.8 54.8 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.5 21.2 17.5 0.1 52.5 51.8 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.2 20.6 0.4 58.8 56.7 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.2 15.2 0.0 50.9 50.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.2 20.3 0.3 56.5 54.5 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.3 20.3 0.3 56.3 55.3 20.8 21.9 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.5 20.6 0.4 59.1 57.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.9 21.8 19.3 0.2 54.8 53.7 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.2 19.2 0.3 56.2 54.1 20.9 21.9 22.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.1 17.2 0.1 51.4 50.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.1 22.1 19.9 0.3 56.8 54.7 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.2 18.9 0.2 55.1 52.8 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.2 16.6 0.1 52.0 51.4 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.3 20.6 0.4 58.1 56.1 20.8 21.8 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------