***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 7.2 9.3 76.6 52.9 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.8 9.5 80.5 53.0 46.5 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.0 10.2 82.6 53.7 47.4 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.2 10.0 11.2 74.6 49.9 43.3 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.1 11.8 78.2 51.0 43.9 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.4 8.2 14.6 79.1 51.0 44.7 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.7 9.4 78.2 52.6 46.6 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.3 17.2 95.6 58.9 51.5 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.7 11.9 80.8 52.1 44.4 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.2 15.9 89.8 56.2 48.9 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.9 12.9 83.3 54.0 46.6 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 14.8 95.3 59.1 51.1 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.3 15.0 87.8 54.2 47.4 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.6 14.9 95.5 58.1 50.5 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.5 10.0 70.2 49.1 41.5 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.0 13.3 83.0 53.3 46.2 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.9 8.9 76.8 51.3 44.1 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 12.9 18.6 98.7 59.8 52.4 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 7.4 9.8 81.7 53.0 46.3 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.2 21.0 104.4 62.4 54.4 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.2 10.3 78.3 51.8 44.7 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.2 9.4 78.4 50.4 42.6 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.4 10.7 84.9 53.8 46.6 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.7 15.3 95.0 57.9 50.4 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.0 7.7 10.3 71.4 46.8 42.4 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.7 16.7 104.9 62.9 53.3 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 7.9 10.1 74.7 50.1 45.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.3 11.2 75.3 51.0 43.2 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 16.5 19.4 103.1 61.8 53.8 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.4 9.6 81.1 53.8 47.5 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------