***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 6.1 16.7 122.3 70.3 51.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.5 16.4 110.3 66.1 51.8 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.9 14.4 104.2 64.0 48.2 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.8 15.0 18.7 117.4 68.5 49.8 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.3 17.7 112.7 66.8 48.5 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.0 23.1 99.4 60.5 48.6 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.4 8.5 17.5 118.8 69.1 54.8 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.5 20.2 17.2 97.3 60.3 45.8 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.5 12.3 17.0 113.5 67.2 48.5 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.7 11.4 17.5 100.3 61.6 46.2 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.3 16.5 108.8 65.5 47.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.6 12.0 15.7 103.7 63.8 47.3 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.1 20.2 103.7 63.0 48.5 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.0 16.3 89.7 57.6 45.5 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.5 18.2 118.0 68.9 49.6 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.4 18.6 107.4 64.5 47.7 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.0 8.8 17.3 121.4 70.1 55.9 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.6 18.2 89.7 57.2 44.6 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 8.5 15.1 102.7 63.6 49.6 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 10.1 21.8 90.7 56.2 45.5 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.4 16.0 121.2 69.9 49.9 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.2 15.7 108.6 65.9 53.1 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.3 14.1 94.4 60.8 47.4 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.5 15.8 90.8 58.3 44.7 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.6 10.5 20.2 124.9 71.0 52.3 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.0 18.9 106.8 64.5 50.7 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.9 19.7 125.4 71.2 53.1 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.5 18.0 113.3 67.2 48.6 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 14.6 19.1 89.7 56.9 44.6 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.7 15.9 107.6 65.1 50.4 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------