***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 11.5 17.8 89.6 56.5 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 17.5 95.3 60.2 48.5 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.7 11.1 17.7 94.2 58.5 45.6 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.7 17.7 21.3 99.8 61.0 47.9 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.4 14.1 21.2 102.3 62.4 49.7 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.3 16.4 26.7 102.9 61.8 53.2 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.3 17.8 94.3 59.4 47.0 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.1 27.9 22.7 108.4 64.7 55.9 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.4 20.9 101.6 62.0 49.3 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 15.6 23.5 105.7 63.6 53.5 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.5 19.5 107.1 64.7 53.5 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.9 18.0 18.8 110.4 66.1 55.9 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.7 22.6 107.2 64.6 55.2 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.0 17.5 22.3 102.0 61.5 51.3 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 12.8 19.4 100.4 62.0 48.0 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.7 20.8 107.4 64.5 53.5 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.6 16.6 92.5 59.8 48.7 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.2 17.8 27.2 110.3 65.3 56.7 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 8.8 18.4 17.3 96.4 60.3 48.5 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.3 29.9 107.8 64.1 57.4 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.1 13.7 18.4 95.0 59.2 45.5 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.0 11.8 16.0 92.9 59.3 48.2 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.4 14.1 17.7 97.4 60.1 47.9 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.0 18.4 22.8 105.0 62.9 52.6 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.3 14.1 21.7 92.5 57.8 45.7 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.4 20.1 106.2 65.0 57.0 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.5 13.6 20.6 90.4 56.9 44.5 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.7 14.1 20.1 101.6 62.0 48.5 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.6 22.6 27.8 109.4 64.7 56.8 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.0 12.6 17.8 94.3 59.0 46.5 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------