***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 11.1 11.3 11.4 1.6 73.5 68.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 10.8 11.2 11.1 1.7 75.9 70.8 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 12.5 12.8 11.3 1.5 74.5 69.5 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.4 8.3 1.2 70.7 65.8 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 9.0 9.1 8.9 1.3 71.1 66.3 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.6 6.5 1.3 73.4 68.6 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 10.6 11.0 11.2 1.7 76.0 70.9 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 2.8 2.8 6.1 1.0 69.1 65.1 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 9.7 9.9 9.0 1.4 74.1 68.6 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 9.6 9.7 7.2 1.2 71.2 66.5 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 9.0 9.2 8.2 1.2 72.8 67.7 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.5 7.2 1.2 71.3 66.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.7 7.2 1.3 74.0 68.4 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.3 8.7 1.3 73.1 68.5 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.4 9.6 1.2 72.2 67.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.3 7.8 1.3 73.1 67.6 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 10.8 11.1 10.8 1.7 75.5 70.2 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.4 6.5 1.2 71.2 66.5 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 10.6 11.0 11.1 1.7 76.8 71.3 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 4.3 4.3 4.6 1.1 68.6 64.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 9.7 9.8 10.4 1.3 72.5 67.8 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 9.9 10.1 10.7 1.6 75.4 70.3 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.2 10.6 10.9 1.7 78.4 72.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 9.5 9.7 8.7 1.3 73.5 68.4 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.4 10.1 1.3 70.0 66.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 8.4 8.6 6.7 1.4 73.8 68.7 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 11.5 11.6 10.9 1.5 71.6 67.4 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.3 8.6 1.2 71.1 66.3 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.3 5.8 1.1 70.5 66.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 10.9 11.3 11.3 1.7 75.5 70.5 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------