***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 11.7 11.8 12.2 1.5 73.0 66.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.1 12.0 1.6 75.0 68.3 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.5 12.1 1.4 73.6 67.3 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.5 9.3 1.2 71.4 65.2 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 9.8 9.7 9.2 1.0 67.5 62.3 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 8.7 8.8 7.3 1.2 72.3 67.3 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 11.6 11.9 12.1 1.6 74.9 68.3 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.5 6.9 0.9 66.9 62.6 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.4 9.3 0.9 66.5 61.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.3 7.7 0.9 66.0 61.8 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.2 8.5 1.0 69.3 63.8 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 8.6 8.5 7.7 1.0 68.8 63.5 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 9.7 9.6 7.2 0.9 67.1 62.6 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.9 9.3 0.9 66.6 62.7 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.7 10.5 1.3 72.6 66.4 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.1 8.1 1.1 70.2 64.5 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.8 12.0 11.8 1.5 74.0 67.2 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.4 6.9 0.8 64.2 60.6 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.7 12.0 1.6 75.2 68.5 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.0 4.8 0.7 62.5 59.8 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.5 10.9 1.1 68.5 63.3 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 11.0 11.1 11.4 1.4 73.2 66.6 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 11.0 11.3 11.7 1.5 75.1 68.5 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.5 9.0 0.9 67.0 62.7 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 11.3 11.2 10.6 1.2 69.6 64.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.6 7.0 1.0 69.5 64.0 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.0 11.4 1.3 71.1 65.3 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.6 9.6 1.2 71.5 65.6 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 8.0 7.7 6.3 0.7 63.5 60.5 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 11.7 12.0 12.2 1.6 75.4 68.7 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------