***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.5 13.0 1.3 70.9 64.7 10.5 11.4 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.8 12.7 1.3 71.2 64.2 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.4 13.0 1.2 70.6 64.8 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.8 9.6 10.1 0.9 66.4 63.4 7.2 8.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.7 10.0 0.7 63.4 61.1 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 7.7 0.5 59.7 57.1 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 12.7 12.9 12.9 1.4 73.0 65.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.3 7.4 0.4 57.1 56.6 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.9 11.6 10.2 0.7 63.3 61.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.2 8.4 0.5 59.2 58.2 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.1 9.2 0.6 62.3 60.1 9.9 10.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.2 8.3 0.5 60.3 58.7 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.5 7.8 0.4 57.4 55.8 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.0 10.0 0.7 62.9 60.9 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.3 12.2 11.3 0.9 67.6 64.7 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.9 8.7 0.6 61.9 59.5 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.0 12.6 1.3 72.1 64.7 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.5 7.6 0.5 59.0 58.5 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 12.8 12.8 12.7 1.2 70.8 64.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.2 5.3 0.2 53.3 54.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.9 11.7 11.8 0.9 65.8 62.3 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.0 12.2 1.2 70.5 63.9 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.3 12.4 1.2 70.4 64.9 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.4 9.8 0.7 63.6 61.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.0 11.3 1.0 65.9 62.1 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.2 7.5 0.4 58.3 56.3 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.3 12.3 1.2 68.9 63.6 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.3 10.3 0.9 65.9 63.1 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.6 6.9 0.4 57.3 57.4 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.0 12.9 1.3 71.8 64.7 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------