***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 21.4 21.6 20.0 1.7 71.2 68.7 18.4 19.8 21.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 22.1 23.1 21.3 2.8 82.4 78.6 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 21.9 22.8 21.1 2.6 79.8 76.3 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.0 15.6 0.6 57.5 57.0 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 22.0 22.2 18.5 1.9 72.1 69.7 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 20.7 21.3 16.9 2.6 79.0 75.5 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 21.6 22.8 21.2 2.9 83.3 79.7 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 9.9 10.7 17.4 2.7 80.5 77.5 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 21.8 22.3 20.0 2.4 77.7 74.6 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 21.9 22.8 18.7 2.9 81.7 78.5 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 22.1 22.8 19.7 2.6 79.6 76.4 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 21.2 22.3 18.3 2.8 81.8 78.4 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 22.2 23.5 19.5 3.0 84.0 80.6 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 22.5 23.7 20.9 3.2 84.6 81.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 19.9 20.0 17.9 0.4 55.6 55.6 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 22.6 23.5 19.0 2.7 80.7 77.2 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 21.4 22.8 21.5 3.4 86.1 82.3 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 21.6 22.6 18.2 3.0 82.4 79.4 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 21.9 23.0 21.5 3.0 83.7 79.9 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 16.6 17.5 16.0 2.9 81.5 79.0 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 21.7 22.0 20.3 1.9 73.0 70.7 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 22.4 23.7 21.5 3.2 85.3 81.7 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 22.6 24.0 21.9 3.4 87.0 83.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 21.8 22.9 20.5 3.0 82.5 79.2 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 20.0 20.8 18.3 1.0 63.0 61.9 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 21.1 21.9 16.9 2.4 79.2 76.1 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 21.0 21.1 19.3 1.4 68.1 66.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 20.1 20.6 16.9 0.8 60.1 59.3 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 16.7 17.7 17.7 3.1 82.4 79.7 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 21.7 22.6 21.0 2.6 80.4 76.8 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------