***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 24.1 24.9 21.9 2.7 80.0 74.0 21.0 22.3 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 23.9 25.1 22.3 3.1 83.1 76.5 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 23.9 24.6 22.1 2.7 78.7 72.7 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 16.4 17.1 18.8 2.3 76.7 70.8 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 23.6 24.0 19.8 2.1 74.0 68.5 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 21.8 22.2 17.7 2.0 72.3 67.0 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 23.5 24.6 22.2 3.2 83.6 76.8 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.5 17.7 1.9 70.9 65.9 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 23.1 23.6 20.6 2.2 74.7 68.9 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.0 23.2 18.9 2.1 72.3 67.0 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.6 20.0 2.2 74.2 68.4 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 22.3 22.9 19.0 2.3 75.3 69.4 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.9 19.4 2.4 76.1 70.3 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.8 20.2 2.1 72.6 67.6 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.9 20.6 2.3 78.5 72.4 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 23.7 24.4 19.6 2.4 76.1 70.1 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 23.0 24.3 21.9 3.1 83.1 76.0 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 22.4 22.7 18.1 1.9 70.7 65.9 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 23.5 24.5 22.2 3.0 82.1 75.7 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 17.5 17.6 15.5 1.7 67.9 64.2 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.8 21.3 2.1 73.9 68.6 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 23.7 24.5 21.5 2.7 79.4 73.0 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 23.7 24.7 22.2 3.0 81.1 74.6 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 22.8 23.3 20.1 2.1 72.4 67.3 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 23.4 23.8 20.1 2.1 74.8 69.7 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 22.5 23.3 18.4 2.5 78.7 72.7 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 23.4 23.9 21.1 2.4 77.8 72.4 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 23.4 24.0 19.5 2.3 76.9 70.8 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 17.5 17.7 17.2 1.8 69.2 65.0 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 23.8 24.8 22.3 3.0 82.6 76.2 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------