***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 24.4 25.4 23.0 2.5 78.2 70.8 20.8 22.4 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 24.3 25.7 23.2 2.9 81.9 73.1 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 24.4 25.2 23.2 2.6 77.8 70.2 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.4 20.5 2.2 74.4 68.6 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 24.4 24.6 20.8 1.9 71.2 66.0 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.6 22.6 18.3 1.6 67.4 63.4 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 23.9 25.2 23.2 2.9 82.0 73.3 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.6 18.8 1.6 66.8 62.5 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 23.7 24.0 21.1 2.0 71.7 66.3 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 23.4 23.5 19.7 1.8 69.2 64.4 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 23.6 23.9 20.6 2.0 71.3 65.9 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 22.8 22.9 20.0 1.9 70.3 65.1 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 23.7 24.0 19.3 2.0 70.7 65.4 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 24.0 23.9 20.6 1.6 68.1 62.9 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 24.3 24.9 21.4 2.3 77.0 71.0 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 24.4 24.8 20.2 2.1 72.6 66.9 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 23.5 24.8 23.0 2.9 81.5 72.9 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 22.9 22.9 19.2 1.7 68.1 63.4 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 23.8 25.0 23.2 2.8 80.3 71.8 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.6 16.2 1.3 63.3 59.9 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 24.0 24.3 22.1 2.1 72.7 67.0 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 24.2 24.9 22.4 2.4 77.1 69.6 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 24.2 24.9 22.9 2.5 77.4 69.4 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 23.5 23.7 20.8 1.9 70.4 64.9 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 24.0 24.4 21.0 2.1 74.3 68.3 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.5 19.3 2.1 73.0 67.0 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 23.8 24.5 22.0 2.3 76.8 69.9 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 24.2 24.6 20.7 2.2 74.4 68.9 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.7 18.0 1.5 65.5 61.5 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 24.1 25.3 23.2 2.9 81.4 72.7 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------