***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.5 23.2 1.7 70.5 62.5 21.9 23.6 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 25.9 26.5 23.5 2.1 74.8 65.3 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.8 26.0 23.4 1.7 70.2 62.1 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.9 20.5 1.2 65.0 59.1 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.1 20.8 0.9 61.1 56.4 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.2 18.4 0.7 58.1 55.2 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 25.5 26.0 23.5 2.2 75.1 65.6 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.4 18.8 0.5 55.4 52.4 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.6 21.1 1.0 61.6 56.7 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.1 19.7 0.7 58.3 54.3 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.6 20.6 0.9 60.8 56.3 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.5 20.0 0.8 58.8 55.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.6 19.3 0.8 58.8 55.4 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.8 20.7 0.8 59.8 55.3 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.6 21.5 1.4 68.4 61.6 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.4 20.2 1.0 61.9 57.4 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 25.1 25.6 23.3 2.2 74.9 65.6 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.6 19.1 0.6 56.7 53.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.7 23.4 2.0 73.2 64.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.1 16.1 0.1 50.7 48.9 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.9 22.2 1.1 63.6 58.0 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 25.8 25.8 22.8 1.8 70.7 62.8 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 25.7 25.9 23.2 1.8 70.4 62.2 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.2 20.8 0.9 60.6 55.8 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.3 25.1 21.1 1.2 65.2 59.3 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.6 24.0 19.4 1.0 61.6 57.3 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 25.3 25.2 22.2 1.5 68.4 61.3 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.4 25.2 20.8 1.3 65.5 59.6 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.3 17.9 0.3 53.7 51.1 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 25.7 26.2 23.5 2.1 74.3 64.9 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------