***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 23.5 24.3 22.0 2.2 84.8 77.8 21.1 22.0 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 23.7 25.1 22.6 2.8 89.8 82.3 21.0 22.1 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 23.5 24.5 22.5 2.4 86.4 78.9 21.1 22.1 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 15.9 16.2 18.8 1.6 77.0 71.7 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 23.3 23.8 20.0 1.7 78.6 72.4 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 21.6 22.1 17.8 1.7 78.3 72.8 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 23.2 24.6 22.6 2.8 90.3 82.7 20.7 21.7 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.4 18.2 1.7 77.2 71.2 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 22.8 23.5 20.7 1.9 81.0 74.1 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 22.6 23.1 19.3 1.9 79.9 73.3 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 22.9 23.4 20.2 1.9 81.0 74.5 20.8 21.7 22.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 21.9 22.5 19.4 1.9 81.0 74.5 20.1 20.9 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 22.9 23.5 19.4 2.0 82.0 75.7 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 23.3 23.9 20.6 2.0 81.0 74.2 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 23.2 23.6 20.3 1.6 78.8 73.8 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 23.5 24.2 19.7 2.1 82.5 76.1 21.4 22.3 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 22.9 24.4 22.4 2.9 90.5 83.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 22.2 22.7 18.7 1.8 78.9 72.4 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 23.2 24.5 22.6 2.7 89.4 81.7 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.4 16.0 1.5 73.9 68.7 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 23.1 23.7 21.5 1.8 80.1 73.5 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 23.6 24.8 22.1 2.5 87.5 80.1 20.8 21.9 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 23.5 24.8 22.6 2.7 89.0 81.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 22.8 23.3 20.5 2.0 81.3 74.3 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 23.1 23.5 20.1 1.6 78.2 72.4 20.9 21.9 22.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 22.1 22.8 18.5 2.0 82.4 75.8 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 22.9 23.6 21.1 1.9 82.1 75.7 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 23.1 23.5 19.5 1.6 78.0 72.7 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 17.2 17.6 17.7 1.7 76.6 70.7 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 23.4 24.7 22.5 2.6 89.2 81.6 20.8 21.8 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------