***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 6.0 9.4 9.2 66.8 46.7 40.2 6.4 10.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.7 10.3 85.7 56.6 45.9 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.8 9.6 10.4 78.2 52.7 44.2 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.7 14.5 84.2 56.3 50.5 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 7.3 10.0 67.9 47.4 41.9 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.7 8.9 13.3 81.9 53.5 49.2 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.3 9.8 82.7 55.3 45.4 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.0 13.6 14.1 74.9 48.4 43.6 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.5 5.9 10.3 70.2 48.1 42.5 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.9 7.9 13.8 73.7 48.4 43.2 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.0 6.5 10.7 67.3 47.6 42.9 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 6.8 11.2 71.4 47.7 42.9 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.3 6.6 10.4 67.2 47.1 43.1 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 10.8 13.4 75.3 49.6 42.2 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.3 9.4 13.5 89.8 61.0 54.1 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.2 7.1 10.8 71.8 49.9 45.3 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.8 10.6 89.4 58.0 46.6 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 8.9 14.2 74.1 46.8 42.1 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.8 10.1 81.7 54.4 44.9 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 8.7 15.1 80.6 49.8 44.6 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.8 10.2 73.1 49.9 43.4 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.0 10.1 81.9 54.3 44.7 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.1 10.4 78.1 52.4 44.4 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.7 9.0 12.2 72.6 48.4 42.1 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.1 7.6 9.7 65.2 45.8 39.7 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.4 7.2 11.8 82.3 52.3 47.3 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.2 6.6 9.0 62.8 44.6 38.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.6 13.6 82.7 56.6 50.7 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 10.9 14.4 75.9 47.7 42.6 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.4 9.9 79.2 53.8 44.8 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------