***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.3 16.2 87.2 58.0 49.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.2 13.6 80.5 54.2 44.3 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.4 16.1 89.7 57.8 48.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.3 10.6 15.7 78.9 53.7 45.9 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.1 16.8 88.4 57.5 50.1 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.2 20.3 100.0 61.3 53.8 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.6 13.9 81.8 54.8 46.1 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.5 23.5 21.2 112.0 66.4 55.7 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.5 17.2 89.2 57.1 49.4 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.1 20.8 104.9 63.5 54.1 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.3 18.8 102.0 62.2 53.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.0 18.3 104.1 63.6 54.2 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.9 18.5 93.2 58.9 51.7 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.4 18.9 85.5 55.1 48.3 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.4 14.4 76.8 54.0 43.7 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.3 16.7 87.0 55.9 48.9 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.3 13.9 82.7 55.3 44.9 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.8 21.9 102.0 62.6 53.7 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.4 13.9 81.7 54.4 45.4 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 10.9 20.9 98.3 59.2 50.7 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.7 16.6 88.2 57.2 49.3 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.4 13.9 80.3 53.5 44.0 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.9 14.3 81.9 54.2 46.4 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.9 19.8 95.0 59.7 51.6 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.1 17.5 83.0 54.8 48.1 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.2 17.5 93.2 58.8 50.9 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.4 17.3 86.7 57.1 49.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.4 15.2 80.3 54.7 46.2 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.5 21.8 100.4 61.3 52.6 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.3 14.2 83.5 56.0 46.0 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------