***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.6 14.9 86.7 58.1 45.5 4.5 8.3 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.5 12.3 15.3 102.1 64.0 48.1 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.8 15.5 94.0 60.7 46.9 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.0 18.0 18.2 97.4 61.5 46.8 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.9 12.6 16.8 91.1 58.7 45.4 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.3 18.6 21.9 110.6 65.9 51.3 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.1 14.4 95.5 61.7 47.2 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.3 27.2 19.9 104.8 63.8 49.6 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 5.2 12.9 17.2 89.9 58.2 43.8 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.7 14.9 20.5 99.5 61.7 47.6 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.3 16.7 97.9 61.5 47.2 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.9 17.1 17.5 104.6 64.0 49.3 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.1 13.3 20.9 111.2 66.4 51.6 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.2 17.5 21.1 97.0 61.3 49.6 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.8 14.2 17.6 104.0 65.0 48.0 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.8 13.6 18.9 105.2 64.3 49.1 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.4 16.3 15.1 100.1 63.5 48.8 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 17.5 23.4 107.1 64.6 50.3 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.2 20.5 15.8 104.4 64.5 48.5 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.2 17.5 23.9 114.4 67.2 52.3 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.5 13.3 16.1 88.6 58.2 45.2 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.8 13.8 16.5 106.4 65.4 49.2 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.5 16.2 101.5 63.5 48.7 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.0 18.8 20.5 102.7 63.7 50.4 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.4 13.8 16.9 86.1 57.2 45.1 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.2 14.2 19.0 112.3 67.0 52.6 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.8 13.5 15.5 84.3 56.6 44.6 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.3 18.9 105.7 64.8 48.0 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 23.0 23.8 109.8 65.5 50.9 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.6 14.0 15.0 97.9 62.3 47.3 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------