***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.6 13.5 16.9 98.9 63.0 48.2 4.6 8.9 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.7 15.3 103.6 64.5 47.8 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.3 15.2 16.4 98.1 62.8 47.1 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 16.5 20.3 104.7 64.8 49.7 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.6 17.6 93.6 60.5 47.5 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.8 21.0 102.7 62.8 51.6 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.6 14.8 100.1 63.4 46.9 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.8 23.1 20.3 103.7 63.7 51.8 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.9 17.4 88.1 58.6 46.6 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.5 16.7 20.3 95.0 60.5 48.7 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.5 15.8 92.4 60.0 48.0 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.4 17.1 101.8 63.4 51.3 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.7 18.9 100.0 62.9 52.6 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.2 16.2 22.2 98.9 62.3 49.1 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 8.1 20.5 114.4 68.3 51.3 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.0 12.6 17.1 95.6 61.0 50.1 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.4 11.1 14.1 96.3 61.9 46.6 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 17.8 23.5 102.4 63.2 51.6 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.5 15.8 103.4 64.5 47.9 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 20.7 25.2 118.0 68.7 58.4 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.5 17.0 93.2 61.0 47.9 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.0 15.2 15.5 100.4 63.4 48.1 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.5 12.3 16.3 99.1 63.0 47.3 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.0 15.3 20.6 97.3 61.9 48.6 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.7 19.4 98.1 62.3 49.5 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.1 13.0 20.0 115.0 68.2 57.0 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.4 13.6 17.8 96.0 61.5 48.3 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.5 20.0 106.8 65.4 50.6 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.8 22.0 24.4 109.3 65.7 53.8 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.4 13.2 16.2 106.8 65.7 48.1 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------