***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 33.4 41.8 57.2 85.8 46.4 42.5 35.0 43.9 53.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.0 35.9 54.4 92.9 52.1 45.2 24.5 34.6 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 32.9 45.8 58.4 90.6 50.0 44.5 34.4 45.8 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 41.9 57.5 68.7 91.4 50.4 45.2 44.4 56.9 71.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 33.2 42.7 61.2 86.2 45.8 42.6 35.1 45.4 56.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 37.9 53.2 76.5 99.6 55.8 49.8 39.5 49.5 60.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 42.7 36.9 53.0 90.1 50.3 44.9 26.2 36.7 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 68.4 87.4 75.4 98.8 55.0 49.8 69.3 83.4 97.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 33.0 41.8 62.1 85.2 44.5 42.1 35.2 45.1 56.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 40.7 54.0 75.4 93.4 50.5 46.5 41.8 53.4 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 32.9 42.6 61.9 90.4 48.6 44.9 34.1 43.4 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 37.8 48.6 64.2 95.9 53.2 48.4 38.4 46.8 55.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 46.9 43.4 68.7 94.1 51.9 47.6 34.1 42.5 51.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 42.1 55.1 75.6 89.8 48.1 44.7 42.7 57.0 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 25.8 39.6 66.0 96.2 55.1 48.2 26.7 36.3 47.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 34.8 44.0 63.5 90.6 49.1 44.9 36.1 44.6 53.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 46.0 40.2 53.6 92.0 51.5 45.8 27.2 39.1 52.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 43.8 60.4 83.0 97.1 53.4 49.0 44.3 57.7 72.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 33.6 47.9 55.5 93.0 51.9 45.1 35.0 46.5 59.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 39.3 58.9 85.1 103.0 58.4 52.2 39.8 52.1 65.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 30.3 38.7 59.8 86.6 46.6 43.3 31.7 40.6 50.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 46.5 41.1 56.0 92.4 51.4 46.3 29.0 40.2 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 28.4 40.5 57.1 90.5 49.6 44.1 29.9 40.9 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 40.1 53.9 73.2 92.7 50.5 46.5 40.7 53.6 67.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 32.9 43.3 63.4 84.3 44.6 41.5 36.2 46.8 58.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 45.6 45.4 68.3 101.3 57.7 52.1 31.8 41.0 50.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 34.0 42.9 59.7 83.7 44.0 40.9 36.2 46.8 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 28.3 41.0 67.8 93.9 52.6 46.4 30.1 39.6 50.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 56.8 76.1 84.4 99.5 55.4 50.4 57.6 71.3 86.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 24.8 38.7 55.3 92.1 51.6 45.0 25.9 37.4 51.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------