***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-29.04.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 11.5 10.5 1.7 81.1 76.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 9.4 10.2 10.1 1.4 77.3 74.0 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.6 10.0 1.3 74.7 71.7 8.4 9.7 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 6.3 6.9 7.9 1.6 80.1 77.8 3.0 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.8 7.8 1.1 71.9 69.8 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.5 5.5 1.1 72.5 70.5 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.4 10.2 10.2 1.5 78.4 74.7 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 1.2 1.4 5.5 0.9 69.4 67.1 -1.1 0.1 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 7.3 8.0 7.9 0.8 65.7 63.9 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 7.4 8.1 6.3 0.8 66.2 64.3 6.2 7.2 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 6.8 7.5 6.9 0.7 65.8 64.3 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 6.0 6.2 6.1 0.9 69.6 67.5 4.4 5.2 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 6.6 7.0 5.8 0.6 63.4 62.0 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 7.9 8.6 8.0 0.7 64.3 63.0 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 9.0 9.5 8.9 1.4 78.9 76.6 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 8.0 8.7 6.5 0.7 66.0 64.7 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 9.5 10.0 9.8 1.4 76.5 73.5 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 5.4 5.9 5.4 0.6 62.6 61.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.7 9.9 1.3 74.9 72.2 6.6 7.8 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 2.3 2.9 3.4 0.7 65.3 63.2 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.6 9.5 1.2 72.3 69.7 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 8.5 8.8 9.5 1.1 71.3 69.3 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.7 8.8 9.4 1.0 69.5 67.9 6.3 7.5 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 7.2 7.8 7.6 0.7 63.9 62.4 6.0 7.0 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 9.2 10.0 9.4 1.7 80.5 76.5 6.2 7.5 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 7.1 7.3 5.6 1.0 70.8 68.1 5.5 6.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 10.1 11.3 10.0 1.8 82.2 77.4 6.3 8.0 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 7.2 7.7 8.3 1.5 79.5 77.3 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 4.8 5.1 4.4 0.3 57.0 55.9 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 9.7 10.5 10.3 1.5 77.9 74.4 6.7 8.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------