***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 12.2 12.2 2.1 83.8 77.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 11.2 12.2 12.3 2.3 85.8 79.5 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 12.9 13.8 12.0 2.1 84.5 78.3 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 7.8 8.4 9.7 1.8 81.3 75.9 5.1 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 9.5 10.1 9.6 1.7 81.3 75.8 7.0 8.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 7.9 8.3 7.5 1.6 78.6 73.2 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 11.0 12.0 12.3 2.3 85.6 79.3 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 3.3 3.9 7.9 1.7 81.4 75.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 10.0 10.7 10.1 1.8 82.5 76.8 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 10.0 10.6 8.7 1.8 82.5 76.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 9.4 9.9 9.0 1.6 80.5 74.8 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 7.8 8.3 8.6 1.6 79.3 73.5 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.8 9.2 7.9 1.5 77.0 71.6 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 10.6 11.2 10.3 1.9 83.8 78.5 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 10.9 11.4 10.2 1.8 82.0 76.3 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.9 8.5 1.5 78.3 72.9 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 11.2 12.0 12.2 2.3 86.4 80.2 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 7.6 8.2 8.2 1.8 83.2 77.2 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 10.9 11.8 12.2 2.2 85.6 79.4 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 4.8 5.3 6.4 1.8 82.0 75.8 3.0 3.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 10.1 10.8 11.2 2.0 83.0 77.3 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 10.3 11.0 12.1 2.2 85.6 79.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 10.5 11.3 11.8 2.1 85.2 79.3 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 10.0 10.6 10.0 1.9 84.0 78.0 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.6 10.6 2.0 82.8 77.1 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 8.7 9.0 8.1 1.5 77.3 71.0 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 11.9 13.1 11.5 2.1 83.4 77.5 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 8.7 9.2 9.8 1.7 80.7 75.2 6.7 7.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 7.8 8.5 7.5 1.9 83.3 77.3 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 11.3 12.3 12.3 2.2 85.3 79.0 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------