***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 11.9 12.0 0.2 54.0 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.9 12.0 0.1 52.9 52.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.4 11.7 0.0 50.7 50.9 12.3 13.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.7 10.0 0.1 52.4 52.5 7.2 8.5 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.3 9.8 0.0 49.5 50.4 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.2 8.0 0.2 55.0 54.2 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.9 12.0 0.1 52.7 52.0 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.0 7.8 0.0 50.0 51.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.1 10.1 0.0 49.7 50.4 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.9 8.6 0.0 49.0 50.3 10.2 10.9 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.7 9.2 -0.1 48.6 49.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.8 8.7 0.0 49.3 50.6 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.3 8.3 0.0 50.2 50.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.5 9.9 -0.1 48.0 49.1 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.9 10.7 0.3 56.6 55.3 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.4 8.9 0.0 49.8 50.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.8 12.2 11.8 0.2 54.2 53.2 11.0 12.0 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.2 7.9 -0.1 48.8 50.0 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.0 11.9 0.1 52.2 51.8 10.9 11.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.4 6.0 0.1 51.9 52.6 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.1 0.0 50.9 51.3 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.3 11.7 0.2 53.5 53.0 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.4 11.5 0.0 50.4 50.6 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.9 9.7 -0.1 47.9 49.1 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.6 10.6 0.2 54.5 53.8 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.0 8.4 0.0 50.8 50.9 9.1 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.3 11.3 0.2 54.3 53.4 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.9 10.3 0.1 53.4 53.1 9.0 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 7.1 0.0 50.3 51.1 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.0 12.0 0.1 52.5 51.9 10.8 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------