***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 11.3 11.4 1.0 79.1 72.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 10.9 11.2 11.3 1.0 77.7 71.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.7 11.1 0.8 75.4 69.6 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.8 9.1 0.8 76.9 71.1 5.8 6.6 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.1 9.0 0.7 72.5 67.7 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 7.8 7.8 7.0 0.7 72.8 68.2 6.7 7.2 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.0 11.4 1.0 78.2 72.1 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 2.9 2.9 7.0 0.6 71.4 66.7 1.6 2.2 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.8 9.3 0.7 71.5 66.7 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 9.7 9.7 7.8 0.6 70.9 66.3 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.2 8.3 0.6 69.0 65.0 8.3 8.7 9.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.6 7.6 7.8 0.6 69.9 65.5 6.7 7.1 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.7 7.3 0.5 66.1 63.0 7.9 8.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.4 9.3 0.6 68.7 65.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 10.5 10.8 9.9 0.9 78.5 72.6 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 10.2 10.1 8.0 0.5 67.9 64.3 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 11.0 11.2 11.1 1.0 78.4 72.4 9.6 10.2 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 7.9 7.8 7.1 0.6 69.6 65.6 6.7 7.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 10.7 10.9 11.2 0.9 76.4 70.6 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 4.5 4.5 5.2 0.6 70.6 66.2 3.4 3.9 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.0 10.5 0.8 74.6 68.9 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.3 11.0 0.9 75.2 69.9 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.4 10.8 0.8 73.3 68.4 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 9.7 9.7 9.0 0.6 69.8 65.7 8.7 9.2 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 10.3 10.7 10.1 1.0 79.0 72.2 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.7 8.7 7.4 0.6 68.9 64.9 7.7 8.1 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 11.0 11.5 10.7 1.0 79.6 72.6 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 8.5 8.7 9.4 0.8 76.4 71.1 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.2 6.3 0.5 67.5 64.0 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 10.9 11.2 11.4 1.0 77.5 71.4 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------