***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-29.04.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 25.5 22.1 3.0 86.9 84.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 22.5 23.9 22.0 2.9 86.0 83.6 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 22.5 24.1 22.3 3.2 87.0 84.3 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 15.2 16.9 19.6 3.2 86.8 83.9 10.8 12.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 22.7 24.5 20.7 3.4 87.8 84.7 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 21.0 23.2 18.2 3.6 89.7 85.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 22.1 23.4 21.9 2.8 85.7 83.4 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 10.3 12.2 18.9 3.7 89.6 86.3 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 22.2 24.0 21.6 3.5 88.6 85.4 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 22.2 24.1 20.1 3.8 89.9 86.5 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 22.5 24.5 20.5 3.6 88.8 85.4 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 21.7 23.6 19.5 3.5 88.7 85.3 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 22.5 24.5 19.5 3.4 88.5 84.9 18.3 19.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 22.8 24.6 21.6 3.5 88.7 85.7 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 22.0 23.5 21.0 3.2 87.0 84.2 18.2 19.7 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 23.0 24.8 20.0 3.5 88.3 84.8 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 21.7 23.1 21.7 2.8 86.2 83.7 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 21.9 24.1 19.5 3.9 90.6 87.3 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 22.1 23.7 22.2 3.0 86.6 84.1 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 17.0 19.0 17.0 3.7 89.5 86.5 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 22.4 24.1 22.2 3.3 87.3 84.2 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 22.7 24.1 21.8 2.8 86.5 83.8 18.5 20.1 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 22.7 24.4 22.4 3.2 87.6 85.0 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 22.2 24.1 21.3 3.6 89.2 86.1 18.1 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 22.2 23.7 20.8 3.1 86.7 83.8 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 21.6 23.3 18.4 3.3 88.4 84.9 17.5 19.1 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 22.1 23.5 21.4 3.0 87.0 84.3 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 22.3 23.9 20.3 3.3 87.2 84.1 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 17.1 19.4 18.7 3.9 90.7 87.6 12.7 14.3 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 22.2 23.7 22.2 2.9 86.3 83.8 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------