***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 23.7 22.3 2.1 75.1 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 23.8 24.4 22.5 2.2 76.4 71.8 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 23.8 24.2 22.4 2.1 74.1 69.7 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.5 20.3 1.8 72.4 67.8 13.5 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 23.8 23.9 20.5 1.9 72.3 67.8 20.9 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 22.2 22.4 18.4 2.0 74.0 68.4 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 23.4 23.9 22.4 2.3 76.8 72.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 11.6 11.8 18.9 2.0 73.1 68.3 8.1 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 23.3 23.4 21.0 2.0 72.8 68.3 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 23.1 23.3 19.8 2.0 73.1 68.4 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 23.4 23.5 20.1 1.9 72.3 67.7 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 22.5 22.6 19.7 1.9 72.7 67.9 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 23.3 23.5 19.1 2.0 73.0 68.1 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 23.5 23.8 21.0 2.1 72.9 68.7 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 23.3 23.5 20.6 1.9 73.7 68.8 20.7 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 23.8 23.9 19.7 1.9 72.4 67.5 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 23.1 23.7 22.4 2.4 77.7 72.9 20.0 21.4 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 22.7 23.0 19.2 2.1 73.4 68.9 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 23.4 23.9 22.6 2.2 75.7 71.1 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 17.8 18.2 16.9 2.1 73.7 69.1 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.8 21.8 2.0 73.0 68.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 23.6 24.2 22.3 2.3 76.4 71.8 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 23.6 24.0 22.4 2.1 74.5 70.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 23.1 23.4 20.9 2.1 73.1 68.8 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 23.4 23.6 20.7 2.0 74.0 69.7 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 22.5 22.7 18.9 1.9 73.1 68.1 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 23.3 23.7 21.5 2.1 75.3 71.0 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 23.4 23.4 20.4 1.8 72.2 67.5 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 17.7 18.0 18.2 2.1 73.5 69.1 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 23.6 24.1 22.5 2.2 75.8 71.3 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------