***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 21.7 20.0 -0.8 37.5 41.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.8 20.0 -0.6 40.3 43.8 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.6 20.0 -0.8 37.3 41.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.7 18.4 -0.7 38.4 41.2 14.3 15.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 21.0 21.9 18.4 -0.8 37.8 40.9 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 19.5 20.8 16.6 -0.4 43.6 44.1 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.4 20.0 -0.6 40.7 44.2 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.7 16.8 -0.7 39.8 41.8 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 20.2 21.1 18.8 -0.8 37.7 41.1 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 20.2 21.2 17.5 -0.7 38.8 41.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 20.5 21.4 18.0 -0.7 39.3 41.7 20.9 22.3 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.8 17.7 -0.6 40.4 42.1 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 20.5 21.7 17.2 -0.6 41.2 42.6 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.5 18.4 -0.9 36.8 41.0 21.2 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 21.0 22.2 18.9 -0.5 41.6 43.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 21.2 22.3 17.8 -0.6 40.4 42.2 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.3 19.9 -0.5 42.9 45.6 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.7 16.7 -0.8 38.2 41.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.3 20.1 -0.7 39.5 43.2 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 14.7 15.8 14.5 -0.8 38.2 40.5 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 20.5 21.3 19.5 -0.8 36.8 40.7 21.0 22.5 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 20.7 21.8 19.8 -0.6 41.4 44.5 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 20.6 21.6 19.9 -0.8 38.1 42.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 20.2 21.0 18.4 -0.8 37.3 41.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 20.7 21.5 18.5 -0.8 37.3 41.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 20.0 21.1 17.0 -0.6 41.0 42.1 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.3 19.2 -0.7 37.8 41.8 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 21.1 22.1 18.7 -0.6 40.1 42.1 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 14.7 15.7 15.7 -0.8 37.9 40.9 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 20.4 21.4 20.1 -0.7 39.2 43.0 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------