***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 24.5 21.6 1.2 76.8 71.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 23.5 24.0 21.7 1.3 77.2 72.3 21.2 22.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 23.5 23.8 21.8 1.3 76.3 71.3 21.3 22.3 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.3 19.6 1.2 75.9 70.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.8 20.0 1.2 75.8 70.4 21.5 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 21.8 22.3 17.8 1.4 79.0 72.3 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 23.1 23.5 21.6 1.3 77.0 72.2 20.8 21.8 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.6 18.3 1.3 77.3 71.6 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 22.9 23.3 20.5 1.3 76.5 71.1 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 22.8 23.2 19.2 1.4 77.6 72.0 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 22.9 23.3 19.6 1.3 76.4 70.9 21.0 21.9 22.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 22.0 22.3 19.0 1.3 76.2 70.6 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 23.0 23.3 18.6 1.3 76.2 70.5 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 23.3 23.7 20.4 1.3 76.1 71.4 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.7 20.3 1.3 77.9 71.9 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.9 19.2 1.2 76.1 70.4 21.6 22.5 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 22.9 23.4 21.6 1.4 78.6 73.4 20.5 21.5 22.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 22.3 22.8 18.5 1.4 78.3 72.7 20.4 21.3 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 23.1 23.5 21.8 1.3 77.2 72.2 20.8 21.8 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.8 16.1 1.3 77.2 71.8 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 23.2 23.6 21.3 1.2 75.8 70.7 21.1 22.1 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 23.5 24.0 21.5 1.3 77.8 72.7 21.0 22.1 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 23.4 23.8 21.7 1.3 76.8 71.9 21.1 22.1 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 22.8 23.2 20.3 1.3 77.1 71.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.5 20.1 1.2 76.4 71.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 22.2 22.5 18.2 1.2 75.1 69.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 23.0 23.4 20.9 1.2 77.0 71.9 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.6 19.9 1.2 76.4 70.6 21.3 22.1 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 17.4 17.8 17.5 1.4 78.3 72.8 15.4 16.2 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 23.3 23.7 21.8 1.3 76.8 72.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------